"Where are they all?" Why last February caught so many centres out

National long day care occupancy fell from an estimated 81.8% in December 2023 to 76.1% in December 2025, according to The Sector's analysis of Child Care Subsidy data. The same analysis puts the cause on supply, not demand: more places opening than there are families to fill them.

It showed up in every state the analysis looked at:

The big groups felt it too. G8 Education's spot occupancy was 56.4% in April 2026, down 7% on a year earlier. G8 put it down to affordability, lower birth rates, more long day care supply and families' shaken confidence after the incidents in Victoria.

So if your February was quieter than you planned for, you weren't doing something wrong that everyone else was doing right. There are simply more centres chasing each family, and families can afford to take their time choosing.

In my experience, most families take 4 to 6 weeks from their first enquiry to their first day. That's not slow parents. That's how many steps sit in between:

1. 1.They enquire, and someone gets back to them.
2. 2.They book a tour, and actually come.
3. 3.They tour two or three other centres and talk it over at home.
4. 4.They decide, then do the enrolment paperwork and link their Child Care Subsidy in myGov.
5. 5.Their child does one or two orientation visits.

Now run that forward from January. A family who enquires on 12 January is starting in mid-February at the earliest, and more likely March. If your centre closes over Christmas, tours and orientations stop for a week or two, and everything shifts later again.

That's what happened to a lot of centres last year. They did push hard in January, and plenty of those enquiries did enrol. They just filled March places, not February ones, and February sat empty in between.

If families need 4 to 6 weeks of open time, then for a 1 February start your last useful enquiries arrive around 14 December if you close over Christmas, or around 28 December if you stay open. Anything after that is filling March.

Here's what that means for a centre with 10 places to fill. At an example rate of 22.5% of enquiries becoming enrolments (roughly 1 in every 4 or 5), 10 enrolments takes about 45 enquiries. Spread those over the weeks you have left before mid-December:

Your numbers will be different. Your conversion rate might be higher or lower, and you might have 4 places to fill or 20. The pattern doesn't change: the closer you get to mid-December, the faster the weekly number climbs. And the families you're trying to reach in December are the same ones every other centre in your suburb is trying to reach.

None of this needs a big budget. It needs starting now.

• Count your leavers this week, room by room. Not just the children going to school. Include families moving away, dropping days or switching to sessional kinder. That's your real gap.
• Start with families who already know you. Your waitlist, anyone who enquired in the last 12 months and didn't enrol, and current families with a younger sibling at home. They're the quickest to decide and the cheapest enrolments you'll get.
• Reply to every enquiry within 15 minutes during business hours. Offer a tour time in that first reply, rather than asking when suits them.
• Follow up every tour within 24 hours. A family who toured and heard nothing is easy for the centre down the road to win.
• Keep tours running into December. If you close over Christmas, lock in orientation dates for your first week back before you close, so families who decide in December can still start on time.
• Get your ads running now, not in the new year. Families who see you in November and December are the ones deciding before Christmas.

The table above is an example. Your number depends on your places, your leavers and your own conversion rate.

Our free February Gap Forecaster works it out in about 60 seconds. Enter your licensed places, the children you have enrolled and how many are leaving. It shows your likely February occupancy, how many places you'll have empty, and how many enquiries a week you need between now and mid-December to fill them. No email needed to see your result.

Work out your February number

If your number looks bigger than you expected and you'd like a second set of eyes on the plan, book a 15-minute call. No pitch, just a look at whether we can help.

When should a childcare centre start marketing for February enrolments?

By early November. Most families take 4 to 6 weeks from first enquiry to first day, so for a 1 February start, the last useful enquiries arrive around mid-December.

How long does it take a family to start childcare after they enquire?

In our experience, 4 to 6 weeks. That covers the tour, comparing centres, the decision, enrolment paperwork, linking Child Care Subsidy in myGov and orientation visits.

Can January enquiries still fill February places?

Rarely. A family enquiring in mid-January usually starts in mid-February at the earliest, and often March, especially if the centre closed over Christmas.

Why was childcare occupancy lower in early 2026?

Supply grew faster than demand. National long day care occupancy fell from an estimated 81.8% in December 2023 to 76.1% in December 2025, with the sharpest falls in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.

How many enquiries does a childcare centre need to fill its February places?

It depends on your conversion rate. At 22.5% of enquiries becoming enrolments, 10 empty places needs about 45 enquiries. Starting in early November, that's about 8 a week. Starting in mid-November, it's about 12.